Weekly wrapup (week ending 18/Mar/2016)

Weekly wrapup ( week ending 18/Mar/2016 )

                                          by Dr. N. R. Phade

Dear Friends,

Welcome to Fortunes at nrptrends.

This is weekly wrapup of Indian equity market for the week ending on 18/Mar/2016.

On Friday the BSE Sensex closed 275.37 points higher at 24952.74 and NSE Nifty closed above 7600 mark up 91.80 points at 7604.35. The market breadth remained balanced between weakness and strength as 1291 shares declined and 1297 shares advanced on the BSE. 196 shares ended up unchanged. The upmove in the Indian Equity Markets  was a part of the upmove in the US and Asian stocks triggered by stronger currencies relative to the US dollar due to US Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged and slashing its projections of rate increases to two in 2016 from an earlier projection of four, in tune to global economic concerns at the monetary policy review on Wednesday, 16 March 2016.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.29%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.30%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex .Hindalco, TCS, SBI, Adani Ports and GAIL were top gainers while Lupin, Sun Pharma, HUL and Maruti Suzuki were losers in the Sensex.

On the weekly basis, The NSE Nifty closed the previous week at 7510.20 to close at 7604.35 this week, about 94 points higher before hitting a high of 7613 and a low of 7405.

In my previous OPINION dt 08/mar/2016 ( Are Indian Markets headed towards a new Bull Run )  we had discussed and identified that Banking, Auto, Fmcg, Housing finance, Agro, Infra, Steel & cement sectors shall be the drivers of the forthcoming bull run subject to fulfillment of certain prerequisites. We had also identified those factors influencing the Indian Equity Markets which have the potential to turn the equity markets into either a bear market or a bull market.

In the previous Weekly wrapup ( week ending 11/Mar/2016 ) I had conducted a technical analysis on the major of the above sectors to check how they performed and had maintained a buy on most on them. All these sectors performed well to expectations and in tune to the analytical observations. In the preceding Technical Analysis, we are going to have a peep at how the above mentioned sectors performed this week and what would be in store for the coming week.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :-

NSE NIFTY 50 :-

As indicated in the previous Weekly Wrapup NSE NIFTY 50 continued its uptrend. As per the NSE NIFTY 50 INTRADAY CHART, NSE Nifty 50 closed well above all the important trendlines of MAE 7, MAE 35, MAE 100 & MAE 200 indicating good strength in the market. The uptrend is most likely to continue this week too.

NIFTY 50 INTRADAY

NIFTY 50 EOD

As per the NSE NIFTY 50 EOD CHART, NSE Nifty 50 closed above MAE 7 (7513), MAE 35 (7394) and MAE 100 (7581) and is yet to cross MAE 200 (7782). It is quite likely that NSE NIFTY 50 touch 7780 this week. I would maintain a buy on NSE NIFTY 50 with stoploss at 7550 levels.

NSE BANK NIFTY :-

In the previous Weekly Wrapup I had maintain a Sell on NSE BANK NIFTY with a strict stoploss at 15181, which was technically a strong resistance, and had indicated that crossing that resistance, NSE BANK NIFTY would easily cross 15350 levels. Supported by global cues, NSE BANK NIFTY opened the week at higher note, easily crossed that resistance and even 15350 to make a inter-week high of 15704 and low at 15178 to end the week at 15654.

BANK NIFTY INTRADAY

BANK NIFTY EOD

As per the NSE BANK NIFTY INTRADAY CHART, NSE Bank Nifty crossed all the crucial trendlines of MAE7, MAE35, MAE100 & MAE 200 to close at 15654, indicating good strength in the banking sector. As per the NSE BANK NIFTY EOD CHART, NSE Bank Nifty closed above MAE 7 & MAE 35 but is yet below MAE 100 & MAE 200. Going forward, its likely to face resistance at 15780, crossing which, it can reach 16400 levels.

I would maintain a cautious buy on NSE Bank Nifty with a strict stoploss at 15560.

NSE NIFTY FMCG :-

In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a buy on NSE NIFTY FMCG with stoploss at 19130 with an expectation of it reaching  19625. The target was nearly achieved as it touched an inter-week high of 19602 to close the week at 19555.

NIFTY FMCG INTRADAY

NIFTY FMCG EOD

As per the NSE NIFTY FMCG INTRADAY CHART, Nifty fmcg closed at 19555, strongly above all the crucial trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, 200 indicating good strength. As per the NSE NIFTY FMCG EOD CHART, Nifty fmcg closed above MAE7, MAE35, and MAE100. Going forward,Nifty fmcg would face minor resistance of MAE200 (19614), crossing which, it enters a new bullish territory. I would maintain a strong buy on NSE NIFTY FMCG with a stoploss at 19430.

NSE NIFTY AUTO :-

In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a buy on NSE NIFTY AUTO with stoploss at 7600 levels, indicating  resistance at 7742 levels, expecting it to reach 7900 levels. The target is yet to be achieved as it made a weekly high of 7831 and partially tested the stoploss level of 7600 as it made a low of 7596 to close the week at 7767. 

NIFTY AUTO INTRADAY

NIFTY AUTO EOD

As per the NSE NIFTY AUTO INTRADAY CHART, Nifty Auto closed at 7767, above all the trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, 200 displaying good strength. As per NSE NIFTY AUTO EOD CHART, Nifty Auto closed above MAE7, MAE 35, MAE100. 

I would maintain a buy with stoploss at 7690 for a target of 7920.

NSE NIFTY METAL :-

In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a strong buy on NSE NIFTY METAL with a stoploss at 1810. I had also indicated that it faces resistance at 1895. NSE NIFTY METAL made a weekly high of 1882 and a low of 1808 to close the week on a bullish note at 1877.

NIFTY METAL INTRADAY

NIFTY METAL EOD

As per the NSE NIFTY METAL INTRADAY CHART, Nifty Metal closed at 1877, strongly above all four crucial trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, & 200. As per the NSE NIFTY METAL EOD CHART, Nifty Metal closed MAE 7, 35, 100 Moving forward it shall face resistance at 1905, crossing which, it enters a extremely bullish zone

I maintain a strong buy with a stoploss at 1840 levels. 

With the Global Markets closing on strong note, we are likely to experience a strong upside in the Indian Equity Markets

This is all for now. Keep visiting for more updates. Happy Investing from Fortunes at nrptrends.

-- Dr. N. R. Phade