Weekly wrapup ( week ending 23/Mar/2016 )
by Dr. N. R. Phade
Dear Friends,
Welcome to Fortunes at nrptrends.
This is weekly wrapup of Indian equity market for the week ending on 23/Mar/2016.
It was a truncated week for Indian Equity markets, with NSE NIFTY 50 ending 1.5% up, trading higher for six consecutive day. Indian markets were closed on Thursday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday holiday.
On Wednesday The Equity benchmarks covered up losses in late trade which helped the NSE Nifty 50 to close higher for sixth consecutive day. It was helped by positive European cues. Technology, FMCG and metals stocks were gainers while banking & financials and oil stocks were loosers.
On Wednesday the BSE Sensex rose 7.07 points to 25337.56. The NSE Nifty 50 advanced 1.60 points to 7716.50 after hitting an intraday low of 7670.60. The broader markets marginally outperformed and were up 0.24 percent. The Benchmarks and NSE Bank Nifty gained 1.5 percent each on hopes of rate cut by RBI in its upcoming monetary policy meet, scheduled on April 5. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 15,000 crore worth of equity in the month of March till Tuesday.
On the weekly basis, The NSE Nifty 50 closed the previous week at 7604.35 to close at 7716.50 this week, about 112 points higher before hitting a high of 7728 and a low of 7617.
Recently the Union Cabinet has approved some important policies and schemes as under :-
The national capital goods policy.
Implementation of rural housing scheme.
Nutrient-based fertiliser subsidy worth Rs 21,275 crore.
USD 1.5 billion World Bank supported Swachh Bharat projects.
These and a rate cut shall have a positive bearing on the Indian Equity Markets.
In my previous OPINION dt 08/mar/2016 ( Are Indian Markets headed towards a new Bull Run ) we had discussed and identified that Banking, Auto, Fmcg, Housing finance, Agro, Infra, Steel & cement sectors shall be the drivers of the forthcoming bull run subject to fulfillment of certain prerequisites. We had also identified those factors influencing the Indian Equity Markets which have the potential to turn the equity markets into either a bear market or a bull market.
In the previous Weekly wrapup ( week ending 18 Mar/2016 ) I had conducted a technical analysis on the major of the above sectors to check how they performed and had maintained a buy on most on them. All these sectors performed well to expectations and in tune to the analytical observations. In the preceding Technical Analysis, we are going to have a peep at how the above mentioned sectors performed this week and what would be in store for the coming week.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :-
NSE NIFTY 50 :-
It was indicated in the previous Weekly Wrapup that NSE NIFTY 50 would continued its uptrend. I had maintained a buy on NSE NIFTY 50. It was expected to touch 7780 this week, but fell somewhat short of the target owing to a truncated week. It moved as expected to close the week strongly at 7716.50, a strong 112 points upmove week-over-week.
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| NSE NIFTY 50 INTRADAY |
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| NSE NIFTY 50 EOD |
As per the NSE NIFTY 50 INTRADAY CHART, NSE Nifty 50 closed well above all the important trendlines of MAE 7, MAE 35, MAE 100 & MAE 200 indicating good strength in the market. The uptrend is most likely to continue this week too.
As per the NSE NIFTY 50 EOD CHART, NSE Nifty 50 closed above MAE 7 (7628), MAE 35 (7444) and MAE 100 (7589) and is yet to cross MAE 200 (7777). It is quite likely that NSE NIFTY 50 cross 7780 this week, after which, it shall enter a highly bullish territory. I would maintain a buy on NSE NIFTY 50 with stoploss at 7630 levels.
NSE BANK NIFTY :-
In the previous Weekly Wrapup I had maintained a buy on NSE BANK NIFTY with a strict stoploss at 15560 , which was technically a strong support, and had indicated that it faces resistance at 15780 crossing which it can reach 16400. Supported by global cues and an expected rate cut, NSE BANK NIFTY opened the week at higher note, easily crossed that resistance to make a inter-week high of 15967 and low at 15735 to end the week at 15887, around 233 points rise in just 3 days.
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| NSE BANK NIFTY INTRADAY |
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| NSE BANK NIFTY EOD |
As per the NSE BANK NIFTY INTRADAY CHART, NSE Bank Nifty crossed all the crucial trendlines of MAE7, MAE35, MAE100 & MAE 200 to close at 15887 indicating good strength in the banking sector. As per the NSE BANK NIFTY EOD CHART, NSE Bank Nifty closed above MAE 7, MAE 35 & MAE 100 but is yet to cross MAE 200 at 16427. Going forward, its likely to face resistance at 16145 & 16295 crossing which, it can reach 16400 levels.
I would maintain a cautious buy on NSE Bank Nifty with a strict stoploss at 15780.
NSE NIFTY FMCG :-
In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a buy on NSE NIFTY FMCG with stoploss at 19430 and indicated that it faces resistance at 19614, crossing which, it shall enter into a bullish territory with an expectation of it reaching 19625. NSE NIFTY FMCG made a weekly high of 19960 and a low of 19463 to close at 19629.
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| NSE NIFTY FMCG INTRADAY |
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| NSE NIFTY FMCG EOD |
As per the NSE NIFTY FMCG INTRADAY CHART, Nifty fmcg closed above, but just a hairline above all the crucial trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, 200 indicating some short-term weakness. As per the NSE NIFTY FMCG EOD CHART, Nifty fmcg has retraced for Monday highs, making new lows each day. It seems correction is on cards for NSE NIFTY FMCG. I would avoid any positions in this sector for the time being till a clear trend js seen.
NSE NIFTY AUTO :-
In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a buy on NSE NIFTY AUTO with stoploss at 7690 levels, expecting it to reach 7920 levels. The target was achieved as it made a weekly high of 8004 and low of 7767 to close the week at 7990.
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| NSE NIFTY AUTO INTRADAY |
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| NSE NIFTY AUTO EOD |
As per the NSE NIFTY AUTO INTRADAY CHART, Nifty Auto closed above all the trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, 200 displaying good strength. As per NSE NIFTY AUTO EOD CHART, Nifty Auto closed well above all the crucial trendlines of MAE7, MAE 35, MAE100 & MAE200 thereby entering a bullish territory
I would maintain a buy with stoploss at 7900 for a target of 8300.
NSE NIFTY METAL :-
In the previous Weekly Wrapup, I had maintained a strong buy on NSE NIFTY METAL with a stoploss at 1840. I had also indicated that it faces resistance at 1905 crossing which, it shall enter a extremely bullish zone. NSE NIFTY METAL made a weekly high of 1951 and a low of 1868 to close the week on a bullish note at 1948.
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| NSE NIFTY METAL INTRADAY |
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| NSE NIFTY METAL EOD |
As per the NSE NIFTY METAL INTRADAY as well as EOD CHART, Nifty Metal closed strongly above all four crucial trendlines of MAE 7, 35, 100, & 200 which indicates that it has entered a very bullish zone.
I maintain a strong buy with a stoploss at 1890 levels.
With many a events, positive as well as negative, on the global front and the expiry coming week, I feel we are likely to experience a mixed trend in Indian Equity Markets. Thereby caution is the key word of some sectors.
This is all for now. Keep visiting for more updates. Happy Investing from Fortunes at nrptrends.
-- Dr. N. R. Phade
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